Methodology · v8.5
Every parcel is valued two independent ways per unit, then blended 70% Waterfall + 30% AVM. Convergence band (TIGHT <10%, MODERATE 10-20%, WIDE >20% spread) measures m1 vs m2 disagreement. v8.5 changes: TH+Condo pool hard SF cap tightened from 1300 → 1250 SF (50 SF tighter — better match for the standard SLBI new-TIC unit envelope). NEW: target-band weighting on TH+Condo comps — comps in the 800-1000 SF band (matching the new TIC unit size) get 1.5× weight. 700-800 / 1000-1100 SF = 1.0×. 600-700 / 1100-1250 SF = 0.7×. The band weight STACKS multiplicatively with the new-construction weight (3×/5×), so an 850 SF new-con comp from 2022 within 2 mi gets 1.5 × 3.0 = 4.5× (or 1.5 × 5.0 = 7.5× under the Granville override). v8.3 carry-over: front-house base PPSF is midpoint(SFR_P80, TH+Condo_P80) — the methodology naturally captures SFR uplift, so the v8.0-v8.2 flat +5% post-blend premium is DROPPED. v8.4 carry-over: per-parcel new-construction weight overrides — 1946 Granville Ave (rank 12) runs at 5.0× new-con weight + 2.0 mi catch.
Method 1 — P80 Waterfall
New units: P80 over the TH+Condo pool (≤1250 SF). 4-tier comp search (1mi/12mo → 2mi/18mo → 3mi/24mo → county → submarket fallback). Front house: midpoint of the SFR_P80 and TH+Condo_P80 — naturally lands above the TH+Condo number. New-con comps in TH+Condo within 2 mi AND YB ≥ 2015 weighted 3.0× (or 5.0× for parcels in the v8.4 override dict). v8.5 target-band weighting stacks on top of that — 800-1000 SF comps get 1.5×, 700-800 / 1000-1100 SF get 1.0×, 600-700 / 1100-1250 SF get 0.7×. Adjustments: TIC -10%, no-parking -8/-12%, no-yard -5% (new units only; dropped on curated pools).
Method 2 — Seekly AVM
Calls avm_router_v2.get_avm() with Townhouse → Condo → SFR subtype fallback. Returns LOW (P25) / AVG (P50) / ARV (P80) over a sanity-trimmed pool. Same apples-to-apples ledger (TIC, parking, no-yard) applied to the raw AVM so M1 and M2 are directly comparable. The v8.4 new-con override and v8.5 target-band weighting do NOT apply to M2 — Method 2 uses avm_router_v2's own ranking independently.
AMI Overlay (SLBI Appendix C)
Each parcel scored under 4 configs: Market / 1 Unit at 100% AMI / 2 Units at 100% AMI (+2 RFI bonus pts) / 2 Units at 120% AMI. 100% AMI 2BR cap = $578,245. 120% AMI 2BR cap = $722,807.
Curated overrides: Eagle Rock (ranks 7, 8, 9) uses a hand-vetted 6-comp TH+Condo set in 90041 + 90042 (5 TIC sales; Monte Vista 1181 SF outlier dropped in v8.3). Selby (rank 35) uses 7 hand-vetted West LA TH+Condo back-unit comps + 2 SFR tear-down midpoint partners from textexport (36).csv. Curated pools skip the v8.5 target-band weighting — the canonical pool stays canonical. v8.4 per-parcel overrides: 1946 Granville Ave (rank 12, APN 4262-025-013) — 5.0× new-construction weight, 2.0 mi catch radius. Under v8.5, a band-matching new-con comp at Granville gets 1.5 × 5.0 = 7.5× total weight.
Profit ledger: Build cost ($400/SF) all-inclusive (hard + soft + pre-dev rolled in). Brokerage 2.5%. Genesis LA pre-dev loan still active on the financing side.
Michael's shortlist (ranks 7, 8, 9, 16, 34, 35) + 1946 Granville (rank 12, projected +$694K @ 19.8% — re-based to its MLS list price of $1.4M). Sorted by projected profit at $400/SF build cost + Genesis LA loan stack.
Remaining parcels, incl. 2 fresh CRMLS listings (6132 W 75th St r36, 1106 S Victoria Ave r37 — Oxford Square HPOZ, 3-unit figure is an upper bound). Sorted by projected profit. Negative profits surfaced honestly — at $400/SF some parcels don't pencil under this configuration.